Draft Kit Rankings

Fantasy Football QB Tier Rankings

Russell_Wilson_vs_Vikings,_November_4,_2012

Preseason football is about to start. Summer is winding down and football is just around the corner. The best time of the year is almost upon us.

Brace-Yourselves-Football

Football is coming.

And with it comes fantasy football, the king of all fantasy sports. You’re planning for your draft and PF366 is here to help. I don’t do normal rankings. They don’t accurately show the reader how the analyst views the players. My rankings are sorted into tiers of similar players. Players are divided into these tiers based on how I view their floor value.

Check out the Wide Receiver Tier Rankings

The Top Tier

Aaron Rodgers, GB
Can Newton, CAR
Russell Wilson, SEA
Drew Brees, NO

Aaron Rodgers is in the best shape of his career and he has his best receiver, Jordy Nelson, back. Don’t let his down 2015 season (where he was sacked the 2nd most in the league) fool you, Rodgers is the best QB in the game.

Cam Newton had a career year in his 2015 MVP season. No one expects Newton or Carolina’s offense as a whole to repeat their success from last season, even with a healthy Kelvin Benjamin. Newton’s ability to run the football will more than make up for any drop in production Carolina has a whole. He’s a top 5 QB.

Russell Wilson was great in the second half of last season. Like Newton, Wilson is a dual threat with his ability to run (last season of added 50+ points). Without Lynch, Seattle will likely depend on Wilson’s arm a bit more.

Drew Brees has 8 consecutive seasons of 30+ touchdowns and 10 consecutive seasons of 4000+ yards. History likes to repeat itself. Brees is a safe top 5 option.

Quarterback 1

Andrew Luck, IND
Eli Manning, NYG
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Carson Palmer, ARI
Tom Brady, NE

Andrew Luck was awful last season. Then he got hurt. Then he was awful again. Then he finished the season on IR. The Colts added help on the offensive line and Luck has an arensal of weapons. Luck should able to return to his 2014 form and if he cut down on turnovers this season he could be a top 3 QB.

I’m higher on Eli Manning than most. He is in his third year in Ben McAdoo’s offense and every year he’s gotten better. He’s only thrown one interception in training camp and this could finally be the year he cuts down on turnovers. Manning has his strongest receiving corp in years. Forty, yes I said it, forty touchdowns is very possible for Eli this season.

Ben Roethlisberger has played all 16 games just three times. He has thrown for over 30 TDs just twice and for over 4,000 yards just 4 times. I don’t like his current ADP of 48, especially with Bree’s being drafted 2 picks after.

Carson Palmer has 46 TDs and 14 INTs in his last 22 games (his 2014 season was ended by an ACL tear). Palmer has plenty of gas left in the tank. Bruce Arians runs a very QB friendly offense which will set a healthy Palmer up to be a top 10 QB.

Tom Brady is suspended for four games so let’s go ahead and take away his four worst games from last season (excluding Week 17 vs MIA when he left early). Brady would rank just outside the top 10 QBs. I think its safe to place Brady as a low end QB1.

Quarterback 2

Philip Rivers, SD
Blake Bortles, JAC
Derek Carr, OAK

The return of Ken Whisenhunt is great for Philp Rivers . Rivers will be expected to get the ball out quickly and into the hands of playmakers like Keenan Allen. Rivers is high end QB2 with QB1 potential.

Blake Bortles finished 4th in fantasy last season due to volume. I don’t view him as a top 12 QB but volume will again increase his rank. Bortles will have more opportunities at fantasy points which will elevate his ranking above other guys who are better QBs.

Derek Carr only got better in sophomore season and we have just scratched the surface of his potential. This year, Carr and Cooper have the potential to take the league by storm. If Carr continues to develop this way he could turn into a top QB. That’s something for keeper league players to watch out for.

The Tier of Uncertainty

Andy Dalton, CIN
Matthew Stafford, DET
Kirk Cousins, WAS
Tyrod Taylor, BUF
Tony Romo, DAL

I think Andy Dalton has proven he is a franchise QB in this league. Dalton was on his way to a career year before breaking his thumb. With that being said, Dalton lost offensive coordinator Hue Jackson and two of his top three receivers left town for big contracts. I still think Dalton has QB1 potential but I think he settles in as a QB2. Expect him to take a step back after losing so much.

On paper, things look they may have gone sour for Matthew Stafford . Calvin Johnson has retired and Eric Ebron just had a serious Achilles injury. However, coaching can do a QB wonders. Jim Bob Coetter brought in a QB friendly offense that brought out an efficient Matthew Stafford. Stafford limited his turnovers under Coetter and looked like a different QB. He’s still a risk because we only saw the production for half a season but the potential is there.

I don’t like to take chances on guys who were only good for 8 weeks. If Kirk Cousins continues his success from last season, he’ll be a top 12 QB. I think it’s more likely he settles somewhere in the top 20. Here’s why: Cousins success came from efficiency in throwing the ball down the field. Reports from camp say he “hasn’t looked the sharpest” on down the field throws. Like I said, he’s not going to be a complete bust but I don’t expect the same kind of production as the 2nd of last season.

Tyrod Taylor is that really good dual threat QB that’s one hit away from being out for an extended period of time. There’s no denying the talent. His ability to run gives him QB1 potential every week he’s healthy. He would be a great option to pair up with another late round QB to play based on matchup.

Speaking of health concerns, next up on the Tier of Uncertainty is Tony Romo . Romo is a top 10 fantasy option when healthy. With that being said, he’s 37 years old, had a chronic back problem, and he broke his collarbone twice last season. If you wanted to pull Romo off your draft board you have plenty of reason to.

Borderline Quarterback 2/Quarterback 3

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ
Alex Smith, KC
Matt Ryan, ATL
Marcus Mariota, TEN
Ryan Tannehill, MIA
Jameis Winston, TB

Ryan Fitzpatrick has two great options at receiver and led the Jets to a 10-6 season last year. Another year in New York should serve him well.

Alex Smith isn’t anything special but he’s consistent. He won’t throw for 400 yards but you’ll get around 200. He’s a reliable option as a QB2.

Reports out of Atlanta claimed Matt Ryan struggled to fully grasp the Kyle Shanahan’s offense last season. He spent the off season working on his footwork in an attempt to fix some of the timing issues. I think Ryan will improve this season but not by much. He’s only thrown for 30 touchdowns (which is the going rate for a QB1) once in his career. I’m confident Ryan will be a very good QB2.

Marcus Mariota is another dual threat QB with injury concerns. Mariota is expected to run the ball more (he only had 34 attempts last season). That will add injury risk but will also increase his fantasy stock. If Mariota can use his legs in 2016, he should improve his fantasy value in his sophomore season.

Adam Gase is an offensive mastermind and Ryan Tannehill should benefit from a capable coach. Its tough to trust Tannehill after he failed to breakout last season. Adam Gase should be able to get the most out of Tannehill, which at least makes him a solid QB2.

Jameis Winston was overweight last season. At one point he played at 250lbs. He slimmed down to 230 this off season. A lighter, more athletic Winston should be even better this season. With that being said, Tampa is a rum heavy team. Winston has top 10 potential someday but he’s not quite there yet. He’ll be a backend QB2 this season.

Quarterback 3

Jay Cutler, CHI
Joe Flacco, BAL
Brock Osweiler, HOU
Sam Bradford, PHI

At this point we are getting to undrafted guys. Jay Cutler will have a few weeks where he is a top 10 QB.

Joe Flacco lacks offensive weapons. Like Cutler he could find himself in the top 10 occasionally but not enough to spend a draft pick on.

I don’t know enough about Brock Osweiler . He flashed talent in replace of Manning last season but not enough to really know how good he is. In such a run heavy offense, I’m comfortable allowing Osweiler to go undrafted.

Sam Bradford . Where to begin? He’s a below average QB with health concerns. Stay away.

Quarterback 4

Teddy Bridgewater, MIN
Robert Griffin III, CLE
Blaine Gabbert, SF
Mark Sanchez, DEN
Colin Kapernick, SF
Jared Goff, LA
Paxton Lynch, DEN

I talked about Teddy Bridgewater in my 5 Mind Blowing Facts about Average Draft Position. I don’t think Bridgewater deserves to be drafted. He averaged 11.5 points per game last season. That’s awful for a quarterback. I don’t expect things to get better this season.

Robert Griffin III will have to use his ability to run to be successful in Cleveland. I think a healthy RG3 could surprise people this season but not enough to use a draft pick on. Keep an eye on him and see if Hue Jackson can help RG3 find his form from his rookie season (Don’t expect much).

Blaine Gabbert hasn’t actually won the job yet in San Francisco but recent reports suggest he’ll get the first crack at the starting job. Chip Kelly runs a very QB friendly offense but it’s still not QB friendly enough to trust Gabbert.

Mark Sanchez cannot even hold off Trevor Sieman for the starting job in Denver. If things don’t go well early in the season, Sanchez could be benched.

Colin Kaepernick should fit Chip Kelly’s offense perfectly but it doesn’t seem like that’s happening. If Gabbert struggles Kaep will get a chance to succeed.

What happens when Los Angeles is eliminated from the playoffs in week 8? First overall pick, Jared Goff, will replace Case Keenum and begin his in reign in LA.

Mark Sanchez and Trevor Sieman are both struggling in Denver. That could open the door for rookie QB Paxton Lynch to get a crack at the starting job after sitting out the beginning of the season to develop.

Be sure to follow Pro Football 366 on Twitter and tweet us any questions you may have!

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